امکا ن سنجی گروه اقدام در مقابله با ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

هیأت علمی پژوهشکده مطالعات فرهنگی و اجتماعی وزارت علوم، تحقیقات و فناوری، تهران. ایران

چکیده

گروه اقدام ایران بخشی از وزارت امور خارجه ایالات‌متحده است که در سال 2018 تاسیس شد. با خروج آمریکا از برجام، این گروه مدیریت و هماهنگی اقدامات تهاجمی علیه ایران را عهده‌دار است. سازندگان این گروه، اهداف جامعی را در قالب 12 شرط پمپئو، وزیر امور خارجه آمریکا، بیان داشته‌اند و ابزارهای مختلف را در اختیار قرار داده‌اند. قوانین کنگره، کمک‌های بلاعوض آمریکا به دولت‌ها و سازمان‌های بین‌المللی، تراز منفی تجاری آمریکا در مبادلات با قدرت‌ها، وابستگی نظامی منطقه به آمریکا و پایگاه‌های نظامی ایالات‌متحده ابزارهای اصلی گروه اقدام در پیاده‌سازی استراتژی‌های خود هستند. با این حال، صرف‌نظر از دعاوی، آیا این گروه قادر به پوشش دادن همه اهداف خود است و تا چه حد می‌تواند آنها را پوشش دهد؟ این مقاله با بهره‌ گیری از مطالعات امکان‌ سنجی در ابعاد مختلف حقوقی، منابع، فنی، عملیاتی، زمانی و اقتصادی دایره اهداف (طیفی از تعدیل رفتار منطقه‌ای تا تغییر رژیم) و روش‌های این گروه (طیفی از تحریم تا تهاجم مستقیم نظامی) را مشخص و 20 استراتژی ممکن اولویت‌بندی و مشخص شده که کدام‌یک در سیاست‌های اعمالی آمریکا و کدام‌یک در تقابل با چالش‌ها از بیشترین امکان تحقق برخوردار است. همچنین، در جمع‌ بندی با در نظر گرفتن ابعاد مختلف امکان‌سنجی، طرح اولیه‌ای از راهبردهای جامع تقابلی ارایه شده که البته بحث و بررسی آنها به پژوهش‌های دیگر نیاز دارد.

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